1 receiver is going to beat the RB5, for example, easily (by an expected 120 points). 1 point-scoring running back is likely off the board, you should prioritize wideouts, because the No. 1 wide receiver by 16 points the past three years, 407 to 391.īut as soon as you think the No. That’s going to be the most valuable non-QB, on average, beating the No. So with perfect foresight, you would obviously prioritize the No. Here’s a different way of looking at the data, with the positions and three-year-average point finishes all in one chart: We hope all of our players score higher than where we pick them but we want that to be a bonus - we don’t want to actually pay for that. The reason is that you only have to get what you pay for at WR to beat the TE handily, as opposed to drafting the TE5 and hoping he scores much higher than where he’s drafted among TEs. The play here is to pass on that TE and take the WR. TE5 equals WR30 in points but the fifth TE off the board has been going (according to ADP) where the WR20 typically gets drafted. Picking fourth, fifth or sixth probably allows you to snake Andrews in Round 2 about 85 percent of the time. But you probably need an early-round pick to take Andrews after Kelce in the second round when it snakes back to you. I prefer drafting Mark Andrews over Kelce, as Andrews was the No. Travis Kelce going around WR5 is perfectly reasonable. TE1 matches the expected points of WR5, meaning that a strategy of just waiting on TEs when no one has drafted one and continuing to pound the WR queue after well more than five of those players have been taken - that’s leaving expected points on the table. You may have that player ranked higher, of course, but we want to know exactly where the points bar is that you have to beat with that pick, and whether it would be wiser to focus instead on another position. The objective is to know the expected points when you draft the 10th running back in your league. So the “RB10” represents how many points the 10th-highest-scoring RB averaged, regardless of where he was drafted. But this has nothing to do with where the players were actually drafted. These are the actual averages for the players at each position, ranking by PPR points - all the WR1s, RB15s, TE5s, etc. And if the three tight ends who are in that top tier at the position are taken all in a row before you select, you probably want to cross that position off your cheat sheet and focus somewhere else. If you’re making the 25th pick and 18 running backs have been selected, you probably don’t want to take a running back. The overriding objective when drafting running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in fantasy football is to get the most points, regardless of position. Let’s leave quarterbacks out of this because I am strongly opposed to a strategy that seeks to maximize points by drafting quarterbacks early - but more on that later. I used the Pro-Football-Reference database and sorted by half-point PPR scoring. This way, I can assess the expected value of, for instance, the TE1 compared with the WR5 and the RB10 compared with, say, the WR10. Every year, I take a three-year sample of the end-of-season actual points scored at each position.
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